Reserve Bank shouldn’t be too trigger happy despite high inflation
Inflation data to September caught many forecasters with their pants down. The consensus had been that inflation would […]
Articles written by leading NZ economist about General economic
Strong headline, masks recession for some
Don't let the stonking GDP headline of 1.7% production growth in just three months mislead you. Growth was strong in the June quarter, compared to March, only because March was nothing to write home about. The March quarter was a write-off - as we all sat spluttering at home with Omicron.
What if housing’s one-way bet is over?
There are no shortages of people wanting to go on the record as to when property prices will rise again. But there is a certain curiosity about their logic. What if housing doesn't remain a one-way bet on even shitty houses in mediocre spots?
Mortgage rates fall, but OCR still to rise
You might have been confused to see several banks reduce fixed mortgage rates last week, while at the same time columnists are saying the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday.
Delivering on the Budget is the real challenge
For me Budget 2022 is not so much about whether the spending itself adds to inflation or not, it’s more a question of delivery. My gut tells me it would be better to focus on doing a few changes well, rather than biting off more than you can chew.
Businesses’ inflationary expectations are becoming unhinged
Inflationary expectations are becoming unhinged, with businesses’ expectations of inflation two years out running at their highest level in more than 30 years (since 1991)!
A canary in a coal mine: non-tradeables inflation
The sharp increase in non-tradeables inflation worries me because it is the canary in the coal mine for the inflationary mindset that is becoming engrained in business decision-making.
Corporate responsibility can play a role in taming inflation
It was a pleasure to record a podcast with Andy Thompson last week. In a wide-ranging discussion we focused on inflation and the potential implications for interest rates within New Zealand.
A cautious approach to interest rate hikes
The Reserve Bank decides on Wednesday what it wants to do to interest rates. This means that economists are beginning to dust their crystal balls, brush off the tarot cards, and meet up to argue over craft beers in back alleys as to what the Bank will do.
Who cares about ‘Bourgeois Benje’?
For all the recent talk of inflation, I have been disappointed that the debate largely reduced into conjecture […]
Key economic themes to watch in 2022
2021 was a year of of upside surprises. Although I remain optimistic about the outlook for 2022, there is also reason to be cautious. The Omicron outbreak has provided a reminder that Covid can still throw spanners in the works.
Shipping headaches could be a $10 billion export problem
It was reassuring to see export data show New Zealand's exports rose in August, but shipping challenges could pose a $10 billion opportunity cost for exporters.